Misses are public.
Calibration is the only honest answer.
- Open
- 79006
- Resolved
- 0
- Hits
- 0
- Misses
- 0
- Partial
- 0
- Hit rate
- 0.0%
Calibration
No resolved forecasts yet — calibration ships once the auto-resolution worker has run for a quarter.
A well-calibrated desk shows realized hit rates close to the midpoint of each band. A 0.7-0.8 band that resolves at 75% is well-calibrated; one that resolves at 30% is overconfident; one that resolves at 95% is underconfident. The desk targets calibration over hit-count.