360 ONE retains ITC Buy, sets ₹440 target implying 68% upside

The brokerage expects cigarette pricing to support margin recovery, alongside healthy FMCG demand and paperboard expansion. It also flags ITC’s proposed Happiest Minds transaction as a longer-term IT-services catalyst, despite expected FY27 cigarette-volume pressure.

— Source publishedSat, 19 Sept, 2026, 17:27 IST·First seen Sat, 19 Sept, 2026, 17:36 IST·Source Mint · Markets

What happened

360 ONE retained a BUY on ITC with a ₹440 target, citing cigarette pricing-led margin recovery, healthy FMCG demand, paperboard expansion and IT exposure

Key facts

  • 360 ONE target price: ₹440 per share
  • Current/previous close: ₹262.20 per share
  • Implied upside: 68%
  • FY27 cigarette-volume assumption: -4%
  • ITC Infotech promoter-stake acquisition in Happiest Minds: 22.1% for ₹13.3 billion

What changed

360 ONE retained a BUY on ITC with a ₹440 target, citing cigarette pricing-led margin recovery, healthy FMCG demand, paperboard expansion and IT exposure through the proposed Happiest Minds transaction, despite expected FY27 cigarette-volume pressure.

Why this matters

ITC’s margin recovery outlook rests on cigarette pricing, sustained FMCG demand and paperboard expansion, though FY27 cigarette-volume pressure remains a planning risk.

What to watch

  • Sequential cigarette EBIT-margin expansion despite volume softness.
  • Management commentary confirming limited elasticity from price increases.
  • Sustained FMCG revenue growth with narrowing or positive segment EBIT losses.
  • Paperboard volume growth and stable pricing after expansion commissioning.
  • Formal announcement, regulatory clearance or revised structure for the Happiest Minds transaction.