Antique backs Radico, United Spirits, Allied Blenders on Tamil Nadu reforms; cautious on Persistent
Antique reiterates 'Buy' on Radico Khaitan (TP Rs 4,500, ~17% upside), United Spirits (Rs 1,791, ~17%) and Allied Blenders (Rs 788, ~16%), citing TASMAC distribution reforms favoring national brands. TN drives 64.7M IMFL cases (~16% of India volumes). Astral demerger backed; Persistent flagged cautious post-Nagarro deal.
What happened
Antique reiterates 'Buy' on liquor makers Radico Khaitan, United Spirits and Allied Blenders, expecting Tamil Nadu's TASMAC distribution reforms to benefit
Key facts
- TP Radico Rs 4,500 (~17% upside)
- TP United Spirits Rs 1,791 (~17%)
- TP Allied Blenders Rs 788 (~16%)
- TP Astral Rs 1,630 (~9.7%)
- TN 64.7M IMFL cases, ~16% of India volumes
- >50% of India brandy market
Why this matters
TASMAC reforms tilting share toward national brands strengthen the case for scaling distribution in Tamil Nadu, mirroring the Astral demerger logic of unlocking focused value.
What to watch
- Official TASMAC distribution reform notification and implementation timeline
- TN state excise duty or pricing policy changes
- Quarterly IMFL volume data and national-brand market share in TN
- Consensus TP revisions on Radico, USL, Allied Blenders
- TN election/political-cycle signals affecting liquor policy
- Rival brokerages issue confirming or contrarian notes on TN liquor exposure
- Radico/USL/Allied Blenders IR flag TN volume commentary in next earnings calls
- Institutional flows rotate into liquor names on the distribution-reform thesis
- Sell-side revisits Astral demerger and Persistent post-Nagarro caution separately