ASSOCHAM sees India–UK trade nearing $115bn by 2030 under CETA

The industry body projects India–UK annual trade could rise from about $58 billion in 2025–26 to $115 billion by 2030, with duty-free access supporting textiles, leather, gems, jewellery, electronics and MSME exporters that meet compliance standards.

— Source publishedSat, 25 Jul, 2026, 21:47 IST·First seen Sat, 25 Jul, 2026, 22:15 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

ASSOCHAM projects India-UK trade could reach $115 billion by 2030 under CETA. Duty-free UK access may benefit textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, electronics

Key facts

  • $115 billion projected India-UK annual trade by 2030
  • about $58 billion India-UK trade in 2025-26
  • 7 lakh to 10 lakh projected jobs
  • 99% of Indian exports receive zero-duty access
  • 90% of UK tariff lines receive reductions or elimination
  • 92% of current UK exports to India covered
  • over 50 export consignments worth more than $140 million

Why this matters

Companies should assess UK distribution, sourcing and partnership opportunities now, while strengthening product certification and compliance capabilities needed to capture CETA-enabled demand.

What to watch

  • CETA signing, ratification timetable and effective-date guidance.
  • Final tariff schedules, rules-of-origin thresholds and product-level exclusions.
  • UK retailer sourcing announcements, vendor onboarding activity and India procurement-office expansion.
  • Indian export data to the UK for apparel, home textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, and electronics.
  • UK consumer spending, apparel/home category demand, inflation and GBP/INR moves.
  • Compliance failure rates, shipment rejections and adoption of digital traceability among Indian MSME suppliers.
  • Map UK revenue exposure and CETA-eligible product categories across textiles, apparel, leather, jewellery, home goods and consumer electronics.
  • Prioritize rules-of-origin documentation, product testing, ESG traceability, chemical compliance and UK labeling readiness before tariff preferences take effect.
  • Build UK retailer and distributor pipelines, emphasizing private-label sourcing, shorter replenishment cycles and India-plus-one supply-chain positioning.
  • Assess capacity additions in export clusters, but phase capex against confirmed buyer commitments rather than the headline trade projection.
  • Hedge GBP/INR exposure and model margin sensitivity to freight, UK demand conditions and potential tariff-pass-through sharing with buyers.