Ather Energy gets Buy call with 31% upside as post-IPO share supply approaches

HDFC Securities has initiated a Buy view on Ather Energy, forecasting 31% upside. Separate reports flagged the expiry of post-IPO lock-ins and potential EV production risks from China’s rare-earth export curbs.

— FiledMon, 3 Aug, 2026, 13:46 IST·First seen Mon, 3 Aug, 2026, 13:45 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Ather Energy received HDFC Securities' Buy rating with projected 31% upside. Reports also covered its post-IPO lock-in share release, Helios Fund investment and

Key facts

  • 31% expected upside
  • nearly 6% of Ather Energy and Borana Weaves shares
  • May 29, 2025
  • May 23, 2025
  • June 10, 2025
  • April 2025

Why this matters

Ather’s approaching increase in tradable shares may broaden strategic-entry opportunities, while rare-earth exposure elevates the value of resilient supply-chain partnerships.

What to watch

  • Post-lock-in delivery volumes and whether major pre-IPO shareholders disclose sales or retain holdings.
  • China policy changes covering rare-earth exports, magnet licensing approvals and Indian import lead times.
  • Ather monthly retail registrations, order backlog and production-versus-delivery gaps.
  • Quarterly gross-margin movement, material-cost inflation and inventory or working-capital buildup.
  • New domestic rare-earth, magnet, motor or alternative-technology supply agreements.
  • Competitive pricing actions or incentive-led discounting in electric scooters.
  • Track lock-in expiry dates, the size and ownership mix of shares becoming eligible for sale, and any block-trade activity.
  • Assess Ather's exposure to rare-earth permanent magnets, supplier concentration, inventory cover and alternative sourcing plans.
  • Watch monthly registration trends versus Ola Electric, TVS, Bajaj and Hero Vida for evidence that premium EV-scooter demand remains resilient.
  • Monitor management commentary on production targets, localization, gross margin, dealer additions and cash burn in the next earnings update.
  • Expect greater use of hedging, inventory stocking and localization partnerships by Indian EV manufacturers if export restrictions persist.