Ather Energy's Buy call with 31% upside forecast resurfaces as lock-in shares turn tradable
Resurfacing a June 2025 move, HDFC Securities' initiation of Buy coverage on Ather Energy with an estimated 31% upside is back in focus. The EV maker also faces near-term supply-chain watchpoints from China's rare-earth export curbs, while shares released after lock-in expiry add a market-liquidity factor.
What happened
Ather Energy received HDFC Securities Buy coverage with projected 31% upside. Related reports flagged China’s rare-earth export curbs as a risk to Indian EV
Key facts
- 31% expected upside
- Nearly 6% of shares
- June 10, 2025
- May 29, 2025
- April 2025
Why this matters
Ather’s stronger equity narrative could improve partnership and capital-raising leverage, while reinforcing the strategic need to diversify rare-earth sourcing and secure component supply.
What to watch
- Exchange data on block deals, promoter/early-investor transactions, and changes in shareholding after lock-in expiry.
- Management disclosure of rare-earth inventory coverage, import approvals, alternate suppliers, or production revisions.
- Monthly VAHAN registrations and Ather's electric-scooter market-share movement.
- Gross-margin trend, warranty provisions, and operating-loss trajectory in upcoming results.
- China export-control implementation details and Indian government measures to secure rare-earth supplies.
- Brokerage target-price revisions or rating changes following the first post-lock-in earnings update.
- Track whether lock-in expiry produces sustained delivery-volume selling or is absorbed by institutional buying.
- Monitor Ather's commentary on rare-earth magnet inventory, supplier diversification, and localization of motor components.
- Watch monthly registrations, dealer expansion, and new-model launches for evidence that demand growth can offset any production constraints.
- Compare Ather's market-share trajectory and discounting intensity against Ola Electric, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, and Hero MotoCorp.
- Assess whether higher trading liquidity leads to broader institutional ownership rather than a prolonged stock overhang.