Bernstein sees DMart earnings accelerating on store expansion, margin gains; ₹5,000 target
Bernstein rates Avenue Supermarts outperform, projecting 20-25% EPS growth over three years driven by 80+ annual store additions, non-metro recovery, and margin expansion. Revenue and profit each seen growing ~17%, with like-for-like growth at 5.5% despite quick-commerce pressure.
What happened
Bernstein rates Avenue Supermarts (DMart) outperform with ₹5,000 target, expecting 20-25% EPS growth over three years driven by 80+ annual store additions,
Key facts
- 20-25% EPS growth
- target price ₹5,000
- 80+ stores annually
- 17% revenue growth
- 17% profit growth
- market cap ₹2,60,764.68 crore
- like-for-like growth 5.5%
Why this matters
DMart's projected margin gains and non-metro recovery signal a strengthening core amid quick-commerce disruption, worth watching for defensive M&A or format-partnership angles in adjacent grocery segments.
What to watch
- Quarterly like-for-like growth trend vs the 5.5% baseline
- Actual store-addition pace vs 80/year guidance
- Gross and EBITDA margin trajectory in non-metro stores
- Quick-commerce penetration metrics in DMart catchment cities
- DMart Ready contribution and unit economics disclosures
- Other sell-side houses revisit DMart estimates; watch for consensus target-price migration upward
- Management commentary on quick-commerce impact and DMart Ready scaling at next earnings call
- Peer read-across to Reliance Retail, Trent/Star Bazaar on grocery LFL trends
- Institutional flows into staples/value-retail as defensive positioning