Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan as India lifts gold import duty to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on organised jewellers, arguing Titan, Kalyan and Senco are better prepared for the duty hike than in prior cycles via lightweight jewellery, exchange buying and formalisation. Titan FY26 jewellery sales seen up 45%, Senco 9M EBITDA up 135%.
What happened
Titan Company · India raised gold import duty to 15% with stricter norms. Antique and JM Financial retained positive ratings on Titan, Senco and Kalyan, arguing
Key facts
- 15% gold import duty
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% (9M FY26)
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Duty-driven formalisation continues to squeeze unorganised players, opening a window to consolidate regional jewellers and expand exchange-buying networks while smaller rivals struggle to adapt.
What to watch
- Monthly same-store-sales and gold price trajectory into festive season
- Q2/Q3 FY26 volume vs value growth split to gauge demand elasticity
- Any duty rollback or GST/customs clarification from the government
- Gold exchange/old-gold recycling ratios as a formalisation proxy
- Smuggling seizure data and unorganised-market commentary
- Organised jewellers lean into lightweight, studded and exchange-driven sales to offset duty-led price inflation
- Brokerages hold or nudge up target prices citing formalisation and market-share narrative
- Titan/Kalyan expand store footprint and gold-exchange schemes to lock in customers
- Hedging desks reassess gold price exposure ahead of festive/wedding demand