Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan as India's 15% gold duty hike squeezes jewellery sector
India's raised gold import duty pressures jewellers, but Antique and JM Financial stay bullish on Titan, Kalyan and Senco. Resilient FY26 demand, lightweight designs, exchange-led buying and BIS hallmarking formalisation favour organised chains. Titan guides FY26 jewellery sales up 45%; Senco EBITDA up 135%.
What happened
Titan Company · India raised gold import duty to 15%, pressuring jewellers. Brokerages Antique and JM Financial stay positive on Titan, Kalyan and Senco, citing
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports -5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Formalisation from BIS hallmarking and duty-driven consolidation is shifting share toward organised players, opening consolidation and store-network expansion opportunities as unorganised competitors are squeezed.
What to watch
- Q1/Q2 FY26 SSSG and jewellery revenue prints vs guidance
- Domestic gold price trajectory and MCX/import premia
- GST/duty policy revisions or partial rollback signals
- BIS hallmarking enforcement data and unorganized closures
- Festive-wedding season (Q3) footfall and ticket-size trends
- Chains push exchange/old-gold buyback and lightweight studded designs to protect volumes
- Accelerated store expansion into tier-2/3 to capture formalization share
- Hedge inventory and lean on making-charge/studded mix to defend margins
- Brokerages reiterate buys on Titan, Kalyan, Senco with FY26 EPS upgrades