Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan despite gold duty hike to 15%
A gold import duty hike to 15% and stricter sourcing norms pressure India's jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco. Their case: resilient demand, lightweight jewellery, exchange-led buying (~50% of Titan gold) and formalisation favouring branded chains.
What happened
Titan Company · Gold import duty hike to 15% and stricter norms pressure India's jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports -5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Tighter sourcing norms and formalisation accelerate the shift toward branded chains, opening M&A and consolidation opportunities to absorb unorganised players struggling with compliance and duty pressure.
What to watch
- Q4 FY26 same-store-sales and studded-mix disclosures from Titan, Kalyan, Senco
- Domestic gold price trajectory and import/smuggling data post-duty
- Any duty rollback or GST/sourcing-norm clarifications
- Wedding/festive season demand prints and old-gold exchange ratios
- Branded chains lean harder on exchange/old-gold buyback programs to insulate ticket sizes
- Accelerated shift toward lightweight and studded jewellery to protect margins
- More brokerage upgrades/target revisions citing formalisation theme
- Unorganised players lose share or consolidate; potential store expansion by Titan/Kalyan