Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco as 15% gold duty hike tests jewellery sector
India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures the jewellery category, but Antique and JM Financial favour organised players on lightweight designs, exchange buying and BIS hallmarking. Titan jewellery sales seen +45% FY26; Senco EBITDA +135% in 9M FY26 despite imports falling ~5% YoY.
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellery sector, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial back organised jewellers Titan, Kalyan
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- annual volumes 720-770 tonnes
Why this matters
The duty-driven consolidation toward organised, compliant players opens a window to acquire or partner with unorganised regional jewellers struggling to absorb higher costs and hallmarking demands.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volume data and grey-market indicators
- Q4 FY26 same-store sales growth for Titan, Kalyan, Senco
- Any government signal on duty revision in upcoming budget/policy
- Gold price trajectory and wedding/festive season demand cues
- BIS hallmarking compliance enforcement pace across smaller jewellers
- Organised retailers accelerate lightweight, studded and exchange-driven product launches to protect volumes
- Titan, Kalyan and Senco push store expansion and franchise additions to capture unorganised share
- Hedging and gold-on-lease inventory strategies scaled up to manage price volatility
- Brokerages upgrade estimates on organised names citing formalisation and margin expansion