Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco as gold duty hike tests jewellery demand

Antique and JM Financial retain positive calls on organised jewellers despite the gold import duty rising to 15%. Analysts cite resilient demand, lightweight designs, exchange-led buying (~50% of Titan volumes) and rising formalisation. Titan jewellery sales seen up 45% and EBITDA up 39% in FY26; Senco EBITDA up 135% in 9M FY26.

— FiledMon, 6 Jul, 2026, 22:16 IST·First seen Mon, 6 Jul, 2026, 22:16 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Titan Company · Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite the gold import duty hike to 15%, citing resilient demand,

Key facts

  • gold import duty 15%
  • Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
  • Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
  • gold prices +56%
  • Senco sales +30%
  • Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
  • gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
  • gold imports -50% March 2026
  • FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
  • Titan gold exchange ~50%

Why this matters

Rising formalisation and margin resilience among branded jewellers strengthen the case for consolidation and acquiring share from unorganised players stressed by the duty increase.

What to watch

  • Q1/Q2 FY26 same-store-sales and jewellery revenue prints vs 45% growth assumption
  • Domestic gold price trajectory and any customs/GST policy revisions
  • Studded ratio and EBITDA margin commentary in earnings calls
  • Wedding and festive demand data (Akshaya Tritiya, Diwali, Dhanteras)
  • Unorganised-to-organised share migration and GST collection signals
  • Watch Titan/Kalyan/Senco for accelerated store additions and franchise expansion into Tier-2/3
  • Push lightweight and studded designs to protect ticket-size and margins against gold inflation
  • Expand gold exchange and Golden Harvest schemes to lock demand and manage inventory cost
  • Peer brokerages likely to reiterate or upgrade if festive-season sell-through holds