Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco as India's 15% gold duty hike favours organised jewellers
India raised gold import duty to 15%, but Antique and JM Financial stay bullish on organised jewellers. Titan guides FY26 jewellery sales +45% and EBITDA +39%; Senco posts EBITDA +135% in 9M FY26. Lightweight designs, ~50% exchange-led buying and BIS hallmarking shift share from unorganised players despite gold prices up 56%.
What happened
India raised gold import duty to 15%; brokerages Antique and JM Financial stay positive on Titan, Kalyan and Senco, citing resilient demand, lightweight
Key facts
- 15% gold import duty
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The regulatory tailwind widening the organised-vs-unorganised gap creates M&A and consolidation opportunities as smaller informal players struggle with higher duties and compliance costs.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volumes and duty-paid vs grey-market spreads
- Titan/Senco quarterly SSSG and studded-mix ratios vs guidance
- Gold price trajectory and its impact on discretionary jewellery demand
- Any budget signals on duty rationalisation or GST changes
- BIS hallmarking enforcement data and unorganised store closure rates
- Titan, Kalyan, Senco lean into lightweight/studded mix to defend ticket sizes amid high gold prices
- Organised jewellers expand exchange/old-gold buyback programs to offset affordability drag
- Brokerages reiterate buy ratings; sell-side FY26 EPS upgrades on margin mix
- Unorganised regional players face consolidation, closures, or franchise conversions
- Working-capital and inventory hedging strategies tightened against gold volatility