Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold duty hike
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on organised jewellers, arguing they are better cushioned via hallmarking formalisation, lightweight designs and exchange-led buying. Titan is guided for 45% FY26 jewellery sales growth and 39% EBITDA growth; Senco eyes 30% sales and 135% EBITDA growth even as gold imports slid 33% MoM in Feb 2026.
What happened
Titan Company · Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite gold import duty hike to 15%, arguing organised jewellers
Key facts
- 15% gold import duty
- Titan 45% jewellery sales growth FY26
- Titan 39% EBITDA growth
- 56% rise in gold prices
- Senco 30% sales growth
- Senco 135% EBITDA growth
- gold imports fell 33% MoM Feb 2026
- 50% decline March 2026
- FY26 imports down ~5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The duty-led squeeze on unorganised players accelerates formalisation, opening a window to consolidate share and pursue acquisitions of smaller regional jewellers struggling with compliance and import costs.
What to watch
- March-April 2026 gold import data and any stabilisation vs the 50% March drop
- Titan Q4FY26 SSSG and jewellery segment margin prints against 45% sales / 39% EBITDA guide
- Senco delivery on 30% sales / 135% EBITDA ambition — high-beta credibility test
- Any government signal on duty rollback or GST/hallmarking policy shift
- Gold price trajectory and consumer demand elasticity during festive/wedding windows
- Titan/Kalyan/Senco push studded and lightweight designs to reduce gold content per ticket and protect volumes
- Expand gold-exchange and old-jewellery buyback schemes to cut dependence on fresh imports
- Brokerages issue quarterly estimate revisions post Q4FY26 same-store data; watch for downgrades if guidance slips
- Selective price pass-through and making-charge adjustments to defend footfalls during peak wedding season