Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold duty hike
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on major jewellers after India's gold import duty rose to 15%. Analysts cite lightweight jewellery, exchange-led buying (~50% of Titan's gold), BIS hallmarking formalisation and resilient demand. Titan seen at +45% jewellery sales and +39% EBITDA in FY26; Senco at +30% sales, +135% EBITDA in 9M FY26.
What happened
Titan Company · After India's gold import duty hike to 15%, brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco, citing
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56% FY26
- Senco sales +30%, EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026, -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange contribution ~50%
Why this matters
Formalisation via BIS hallmarking favors organized players, widening the acquisition and consolidation runway against duty-pressured unorganized jewellers.
What to watch
- Q4/FY26 same-store sales and grammage growth vs +45% guidance
- Gold price trajectory and any further duty policy changes
- Studded-jewellery mix and gross margin trends in quarterly prints
- Festival and wedding-season demand data
- Senco 9M FY26 EBITDA delivery vs +135% expectation
- Jewellers accelerate lightweight and studded launches to defend ticket sizes
- Expanded exchange/old-gold programs to insulate from raw gold price and duty
- Store network expansion into Tier 2/3 to capture unorganised-to-organised shift
- Peer brokerages issue follow-on notes; possible target-price upgrades on Titan