Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold duty hike
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on organised jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs and exchange-led buying. Titan jewellery sales seen +45% and EBITDA +39% in FY26, with BIS hallmarking-led formalisation favouring listed players even as gold imports fall ~5% YoY.
What happened
Titan Company · Brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite India's 15% gold duty hike, citing resilient
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The duty-driven ~5% import decline and hallmarking-led formalisation create an opening to consolidate smaller unorganised jewellers into the listed fold.
What to watch
- Official gold import data confirming ~5% YoY decline
- BIS hallmarking enforcement expansion to smaller towns
- Wedding/festive season same-store-sales prints
- Any government signal on duty reversal or exchange-scheme rules
- Gold price crossing psychological retail thresholds
- Track Titan quarterly jewellery segment updates for volume vs value mix
- Monitor peer brokerage revisions (Motilal, Nuvama) for consensus convergence
- Watch Senco and Kalyan store-expansion capex guidance for share-gain execution
- Assess gold price trajectory and any partial duty rollback lobbying