Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold duty hike
India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures the jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on branded chains, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs, exchange-led buying and formalisation. Titan FY26 jewellery sales up 45%, Senco EBITDA up 135%; targets set at Rs 4,900 (Titan), Rs 600 (Kalyan), Rs 475 (Senco).
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellery sector, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on Titan, Kalyan and
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan target Rs 4,763/Rs 4,900
- Senco target Rs 475
- Kalyan target Rs 600
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The duty-driven divergence between formal branded chains and the unorganised sector accelerates market-share consolidation, opening M&A and regional roll-up opportunities for well-capitalised players like Titan and Kalyan.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volumes and any duty rollback signals from the government
- Titan/Kalyan/Senco quarterly same-store sales growth and studded ratio
- Bullion price trajectory and rupee levels affecting landed cost
- Wedding/festive season demand data (Q3FY26)
- Enforcement actions or reports on gold smuggling volumes
- Branded chains lean into lightweight and studded/diamond mix to reduce gold content per ticket and protect margins
- Aggressive promotion of gold-exchange and old-gold buyback schemes to insulate customers from price shock
- Franchise/store expansion into tier-2/3 markets vacated by pressured unorganised players
- Brokerages hold Buy ratings; watch for target revisions after Q1FY26 volume prints