Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold import duty hike
Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on jewellery majors, citing resilient FY26 demand, hallmarking-led formalisation and rising gold-exchange programmes. Titan jewellery sales seen +45%, Senco EBITDA +135%; targets set at Rs 4,763-4,900 (Titan), Rs 600 (Kalyan), Rs 475 (Senco). Gold imports fell 33% MoM in Feb 2026.
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellery sector, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on Titan, Kalyan and
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- Titan target Rs 4,763-4,900
- Senco target Rs 475
- Kalyan target Rs 600
Why this matters
Formalisation tailwinds and a 33% MoM drop in gold imports favor scaled, organised players, opening consolidation opportunities as duty and price shocks squeeze smaller unorganised competitors.
What to watch
- March-April gold import data (confirm/deny Feb 33% drop as trend)
- Any duty rollback or GST tweak in response to industry lobbying
- Domestic gold price trajectory beyond current 56% spike
- Wedding-season demand signals and studded ratio in Q1FY27
- Unorganised-sector pricing and smuggling enforcement news
- Track listed jewellers' Q4FY26 same-store sales and volume vs value split
- Monitor gold-exchange programme contribution to total sourcing
- Watch studded/margin mix commentary in management calls
- Assess brokerage target revisions if import data stays weak