Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold import duty hike
India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures the jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco. Analysts cite better compliance, exchange-led buying (~50% for Titan) and resilient branded demand versus the FY13-14 duty cycle.
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and
Key facts
- 15% gold import duty
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The duty-driven margin pressure on unorganized players accelerates formalization, opening consolidation and market-share capture opportunities for compliant branded jewellers versus the FY13-14 cycle.
What to watch
- Q4 FY26 same-store sales and studded ratio prints
- Domestic gold price trajectory and consumer volume response
- Any government rollback or GST-side adjustment
- Grey-market/smuggling data and enforcement actions
- Gold exchange scheme contribution trends (Titan ~50%)
- Titan/Kalyan/Senco lean into exchange programs and studded mix to protect margins
- Retailers pass through duty via pricing while emphasizing making-charge promotions
- Sector rerating on defensiveness of branded compliance narrative
- Watch for capex/store expansion continuation as management signals confidence