Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold import duty hike
Antique and JM Financial stay positive on branded jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs, exchange-led buying and BIS hallmarking formalisation. Titan seen posting +45% FY26 jewellery sales and +39% EBITDA, with Senco EBITDA up 135%, even as gold imports fall ~5% YoY.
What happened
Brokerages Antique and JM Financial stay positive on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite a 15% gold import duty hike, citing resilient demand, lightweight
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Formalisation via BIS hallmarking widens the gap between organized and unorganized players, opening consolidation and acquisition opportunities among smaller regional jewellers.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volume prints and duty policy revisions
- Q2/Q3 FY26 same-store-sales and studded-ratio disclosures from Titan/Kalyan/Senco
- Gold price trajectory around festive/wedding season
- BIS hallmarking enforcement expansion and compliance data
- Any brokerage estimate cuts signalling demand cracks
- Peer brokerages (Nuvama, Motilal, Jefferies) likely to reiterate or upgrade branded jewellers, reinforcing consensus
- Titan and Kalyan to accelerate store additions and push exchange/gold-savings schemes to defend volumes
- Unorganised jewellers lose share; potential distress or consolidation into branded franchise networks
- Studded-jewellery mix push to protect EBITDA margins against gold-price pass-through risk