Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite 15% gold import duty hike
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on organised jewellers, arguing they are better positioned to absorb the duty hike via lightweight designs, hallmarking-led formalisation and exchange-driven buying. Titan jewellery sales are seen up 45% in FY26 even as gold imports fall ~5% YoY.
What happened
Titan Company · Brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite India's gold import duty hike to 15%, arguing
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
Why this matters
Regulatory formalisation is widening the moat for organised jewellers, making scale-driven consolidation and acquisition of smaller unorganised players increasingly attractive.
What to watch
- Official gold import volume prints (~5% YoY decline confirmation)
- Any government rollback or tweak of the 15% duty in upcoming budget/policy
- Studded ratio and same-store-sales growth in quarterly filings
- Grey market / smuggling seizure data as leading indicator of leakage
- Gold price trajectory and consumer footfall during wedding/festive season
- Track brokerage estimate revisions post Q3/Q4 results against the +45% Titan and +135% Senco EBITDA baselines
- Watch organised jewellers push lighter-caratage and studded ranges to protect ticket-size economics
- Monitor store expansion and exchange-scheme promotions as share-grab levers
- Assess hedging and inventory gain disclosures as gold price commentary shifts