Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on branded jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs and exchange-led buying. Titan jewellery sales seen +45% and EBITDA +39% in FY26; Senco EBITDA up 135% in 9M FY26. Formalisation favors organised players even as imports fall.
What happened
Brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite India's gold duty hike to 15%, citing resilient demand,
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports -5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Falling imports and accelerating formalisation create a window to consolidate share from unorganised players via regional acquisitions.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import data confirming the ~50% drop by Mar 2026
- Quarterly same-store-sales and studded mix disclosures from Titan/Kalyan/Senco
- Gold price trajectory and any further duty revisions
- Wedding and festive-season demand prints
- Hedging gains/losses and inventory-cost commentary in earnings
- Branded jewellers accelerate lightweight and studded product launches to protect ticket sizes
- Push exchange-led and gold-savings schemes to sustain footfall amid price inflation
- Store expansion into Tier 2/3 to capture share from shrinking unorganised trade
- Analysts hold or raise FY26 EBITDA estimates for Titan, Senco, Kalyan