Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on organised jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs and BIS hallmarking-led formalisation. Titan jewellery sales seen +45% FY26; Senco EBITDA +135% in 9M FY26 even as gold imports fall ~5% YoY.
What happened
Brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite India's gold import duty hike to 15%, citing resilient demand,
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56% FY26
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- 720-770 tonnes
Why this matters
Senco's +135% 9M FY26 EBITDA against falling gold imports signals organised players are gaining share from the unorganised trade, strengthening the case for consolidation-driven M&A.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import data and any further duty/GST tweaks
- Q4 FY26 same-store sales and studded ratio disclosures from Titan and Kalyan
- Gold price trajectory and rupee moves affecting affordability
- Wedding-season demand prints and BIS hallmarking compliance data
- Senco/Kalyan margin normalisation vs the 9M spike
- Titan/Kalyan guide up on studded and lightweight design mix to protect margins amid higher gold cost
- More brokerages issue reiterate/upgrade notes framing duty hike as formalisation tailwind for organised players
- Unorganised and regional jewellers face working-capital stress; possible consolidation or franchise conversions
- Companies push exchange/old-gold schemes and EMI to sustain footfall through price shock