Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on jewellery majors even as India lifts gold import duty to 15%. Titan is guided to 45% jewellery sales growth and 39% EBITDA growth in FY26, while Senco eyes 30% sales and 135% EBITDA growth. Analysts cite resilient demand, BIS hallmarking-led formalisation and stronger exchange programmes, though valuation multiples are trimmed.
What happened
Titan Company · Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco Gold despite India's gold duty hike to 15%, citing resilient demand,
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan 45% jewellery sales growth FY26
- Titan 39% EBITDA growth
- Senco 30% sales growth
- Senco 135% EBITDA growth
- Titan target Rs 4,763-4,900
- Senco target Rs 475
- Kalyan target Rs 600
- Feb 2026 imports -33% MoM
- Mar 2026 imports -50% MoM
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Formalisation from hallmarking plus a 33-50% MoM import decline is squeezing unorganised players, opening a window to consolidate share via acquisitions of smaller regional jewellers.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volumes and any duty reversal signals
- Q1/Q2 FY26 same-store sales growth and grammage trends
- Bullion price trajectory and festive/wedding season bookings
- Studded ratio and EBITDA margin delivery vs guidance
- Any further brokerage target-price or rating revisions
- Jewellers accelerate exchange/old-gold programmes to cushion price sensitivity
- Shift product mix toward higher-margin studded and lightweight designs
- Aggressive store expansion to grab share from stressed unorganized players
- Hedging and lease-gold models emphasized to protect margins from bullion volatility