Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures the jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial favour organised retailers. Titan's jewellery sales seen up 45% and EBITDA up 39% in FY26; Senco EBITDA up 135% in 9M FY26. Lightweight designs, exchange-led buying (~50% at Titan) and BIS hallmarking cushion the blow versus the FY13-14 cycle.
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellery sector, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial back Titan, Kalyan and Senco, citing
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The 15% duty and sharp import drops (-33% MoM Feb, ~50% Mar 2026) accelerate share shift from unorganised to organised players, opening consolidation and acquisition opportunities.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volumes (April-May 2026 normalisation vs continued decline)
- Q4 FY26 same-store-sales and studded-ratio disclosures
- Any government signal on duty reversal or GST/customs tweak
- Domestic gold price trend and wedding-season demand
- Grey-market premium / smuggling seizure reports
- Titan, Kalyan, Senco to lean into lightweight/studded mix and exchange schemes to protect margins
- Brokerages (Antique, JM) reiterate buys; watch for consensus EBITDA revisions after Q4 prints
- Accelerated store expansion by organised players to capture unorganised share
- Hedging and gold-on-lease reliance rises to manage price volatility