Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on branded jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs and exchange-led buying (~50%). Titan jewellery sales seen up 45% and EBITDA up 39% in FY26; Senco EBITDA up 135% in 9M FY26. BIS hallmarking formalisation favours organised chains even as imports fell ~5% YoY.
What happened
Titan Company · Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Senco Gold and Kalyan Jewellers despite India's gold import duty hike to 15%, citing
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
BIS hallmarking formalisation and a ~5% import decline are structurally shifting share to organized chains, opening consolidation opportunities against pressured unorganized rivals.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import data for smuggling/grey-market resurgence signals
- Q4 FY26 same-store sales and studded mix disclosures
- Any duty rollback or GST tweak in policy commentary
- Gold price trajectory and consumer footfall during wedding/festive season
- BIS hallmarking enforcement pace on unorganised retailers
- Branded jewellers push lightweight and studded ranges to defend margins against gold inflation
- Expanded gold-exchange and old-jewellery buyback schemes to lower effective consumer outlay
- Store network expansion into tier-2/3 to absorb formalisation-driven share shift
- Peers issue FY26 guidance updates; analyst target revisions on Titan/Kalyan/Senco