Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on branded jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs and exchange-led buying. Titan jewellery sales up 45% and EBITDA up 39% in FY26; Senco EBITDA up 135% in 9M FY26. Formalisation seen favouring organised players even as imports fall.
What happened
Titan Company · Brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%, citing resilient demand,
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39% FY26
- gold prices +56% FY26
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports est -5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50% vs ~20% FY13-14
Why this matters
The duty-driven squeeze on unorganised and import channels widens the runway for organised jewellers to consolidate regional players and expand branded footprint.
What to watch
- FY26 same-store sales growth vs the 45% Titan / 135% Senco EBITDA base
- Gold price trajectory and consumer volume elasticity post-duty
- Import and smuggling data indicating grey-market revival
- Studded/lightweight mix share in quarterly disclosures
- Any government commentary on duty revision or curbing informal trade
- Titan, Kalyan, Senco push lightweight and studded jewellery mix to protect ticket sizes
- Expanded exchange/old-gold buyback programs to shield customers from price shock
- Brokerages reiterate positive ratings with FY26-27 EPS estimates largely intact
- Accelerated store expansion in tier-2/3 to capture share from closing unorganised outlets