Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures the jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial stay positive on Titan, Kalyan and Senco. They cite resilient demand, lightweight jewellery, exchange-led buying (~50% at Titan) and rising formalisation via BIS hallmarking. Titan jewellery sales are seen up 45% in FY26.
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellery sector, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial stay positive on Titan, Kalyan and
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan jewellery sales +45% FY26
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
- gold imports 720-770 tonnes FY19-FY26
Why this matters
Rising formalisation and a 33-50% MoM drop in imports signal pressure on smaller unorganised players, opening a window for consolidation and acquisition of BIS-compliant regional jewellers.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volumes and MoM decline trajectory
- Titan/Kalyan/Senco quarterly SSSG and studded ratio
- Any government commentary on duty revision or budget signals
- Grey-market/smuggling seizure data as duty-arbitrage proxy
- Gold price trend and its effect on festive/wedding demand
- Jewellers accelerate exchange/old-gold buying schemes to reduce fresh import dependence
- Shift product mix toward lightweight and studded jewellery to protect ticket volumes
- Brokerages reiterate buy ratings citing formalisation tailwind
- Unorganized players face working-capital stress; consolidation opportunities emerge