Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellers, but Antique and JM Financial stay bullish on branded chains, citing resilient demand, lightweight jewellery and exchange-led buying. Titan FY26 jewellery sales seen up 45%, EBITDA up 39%; Senco EBITDA up 135%. Formalisation favours organised players.
What happened
Titan Company · India's gold import duty hike to 15% pressures jewellers, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial stay positive on Titan, Kalyan and Senco,
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports -5% YoY
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
Duty-driven formalisation is squeezing unorganised players, opening acquisition and share-consolidation opportunities for well-capitalised branded chains.
What to watch
- Q2/festive-season same-store sales growth prints
- Domestic gold price trajectory vs international
- Any further duty or GST policy changes
- Studded/lightweight jewellery mix ratios in disclosures
- Margin/EBITDA delivery vs 39-135% guidance
- Unorganised-to-organised share shift data
- Jewellers accelerate lightweight/studded product mix to protect volumes
- Expanded exchange and gold-savings schemes to smooth affordability
- Aggressive store additions in Tier 2/3 to capture unorganised share
- Peer brokerages issue follow-on notes; target price revisions to firm up post duty
- Hedging and inventory strategy commentary from managements in earnings calls