Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold duty hike to 15%
A gold import duty hike to 15% pressures India's jewellery sector, but Antique and JM Financial stay positive on organised players, citing resilient demand, lightweight jewellery, exchange-led buying and stronger compliance. Titan FY26 jewellery sales seen +45%, Senco EBITDA +135% in 9M FY26.
What happened
Titan Company · A gold import duty hike to 15% pressures India's jewellery sector, but brokerages Antique and JM Financial stay positive on organised players
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135% 9M FY26
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- gold volumes 720-770 tonnes FY19-FY26
- Titan gold-exchange contribution ~50% vs ~20% FY13-14
Why this matters
The duty-driven 33-50% MoM import drop and formalisation tailwind create a window to consolidate weakened unorganised and regional players.
What to watch
- April-May 2026 import data for demand stabilisation vs further decline
- Q4 FY26 same-store sales and volume growth from Titan/Kalyan/Senco
- Government signals on duty rollback or GST tweaks
- Gold price trajectory and rupee movement
- Grey market / smuggling enforcement actions
- Retailers accelerate lightweight and studded jewellery mix to protect margins
- Push exchange-led (old-gold) buying programs to reduce fresh import dependence
- Brokerages maintain buy ratings but trim near-term volume estimates
- Consumers time purchases around potential duty reversal or price dips