Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco despite gold import duty hike to 15%
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on organised jewellers, citing resilient demand, lightweight designs and exchange-led buying. Titan FY26 jewellery sales seen up 45%, Senco EBITDA up 135%, even as gold imports slid ~33% MoM in Feb and ~50% in Mar 2026.
What happened
Titan Company · Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco despite India's gold import duty hike to 15%, citing resilient
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- gold imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- gold volumes 720-770 tonnes
- Titan gold exchange ~50% vs ~20% FY13-14
Why this matters
The duty-driven shift toward organised, exchange-based buying favors scaled players and could accelerate consolidation opportunities as smaller unorganised jewellers face margin pressure.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import volumes (recovery vs continued decline)
- Q1/Q2 FY26 same-store sales and EBITDA prints from Titan and Senco
- Any customs duty revision or budget signal
- Gold price trajectory and INR moves affecting landed cost
- Studded ratio and grammage trends in company disclosures
- Organised jewellers accelerate lightweight/low-caratage and studded launches to protect ticket sizes
- Push gold-exchange and old-gold buyback programs to sustain footfalls amid high prices
- Watch for additional brokerage upgrades/estimate revisions on Titan, Kalyan, Senco
- Unorganised/regional players may cut inventory or lose float to smuggled/informal supply