Crisil: organised jewellers face decade-low 13-15% volume drop in FY26 as gold tops Rs 1.6 lakh
Customs duty hike to 15% and a 55% gold price surge will push organised jewellery volumes to a decade low in FY26, Crisil projects. Revenues still grow 20-25% on higher realisations, with inventory days at 160-180 and interest coverage at 5-6x keeping credit profiles stable despite USD 72bn import outflow on 720 tonnes.
What happened
Indian Gold Jewellery Retail Sector · Crisil projects organised gold jewellery retailers' volumes to fall 13-15% this fiscal—a decade low—after customs duty
Key facts
- volume decline 13-15%
- revenue growth 20-25%
- 720 tonne gold imports FY26
- USD 72 billion outflow
- customs duty raised to 15% from 6%
- gold price 55% rise
- Rs 160,000 per 10 gram
- inventory days 160-180
- interest coverage 5-6x
Why this matters
Use the FY26 volume shock and USD 72bn import drag to scout distressed regional players, since smaller jewellers without 5-6x coverage will struggle to fund 160-180 day inventory at Rs 1.6 lakh gold.