Crisil pegs FMCG growth at 8-10% in FY26 as price hikes mask volume slowdown
Indian FMCG revenue is set to expand 8-10% to Rs 6.6 lakh crore in FY26, driven by 6-7% price-led realisation gains, while volumes crawl at 2-3%. Crude-linked input inflation will compress EBITDA margins by 150-200 bps to 17-18%, hitting soaps, detergents and personal care hardest.
Crisil projects Indian FMCG revenue growth of 8-10% this fiscal driven by price hikes, but volume growth slows to 2-3% and EBITDA margins compress 150-200 bps as crude-linked input costs squeeze soaps, detergents, and personal care players.
Why this matters
Crisil's outlook confirms FMCG's pricing-over-volume playbook persists into FY26, with crude-linked inflation squeezing margins in HPC categories even as headline revenue growth holds.
Retail-company signals steady at 797 over 90 days, reflecting sustained sector commentary flow.