DMart’s FY27 store-opening outlook slows to about 75, triggering brokerage target cuts
Avenue Supermarts has guided for roughly 15% annual store growth, or about 75 new DMart stores in FY27. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley cut target prices as they lowered expansion, same-store sales and earnings assumptions; management remains focused on disciplined DMart Ready growth.
What happened
DMart guided to slower annual store expansion of about 15%, or 75 openings in FY27, prompting target-price cuts by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Macquarie.
Key facts
- Management guides for approximately 15% annual store growth
- Approximately 75 new stores planned in FY27
- Goldman Sachs target cut to Rs 3,800 from Rs 4,000
- Morgan Stanley target cut to Rs 4,464 from Rs 4,827
- Morgan Stanley FY27 store-opening estimate cut to 75 from 85
- Morgan Stanley same-store sales growth forecast cut to 7% from 8%
- Morgan Stanley FY27-FY29 EPS estimates reduced by around 3%
- Macquarie target price Rs 3,250
- Expected gross margin: 14-15%
- Macquarie forecasts roughly 8% same-store sales growth
Why this matters
DMart’s slower store-addition guidance suggests a selective real-estate posture, potentially creating opportunities for rivals to compete for attractive catchments and retail locations.
What to watch
- Quarterly net store additions versus the roughly 75-store FY27 guide.
- Same-store sales growth, especially discretionary general merchandise and non-food categories.
- New-store sales ramp, payback periods and contribution margins.
- Distribution-center additions and evidence of construction, approvals or real-estate bottlenecks.
- DMart Ready order growth, repeat rates, delivery economics and geographic rollout pace.
- Further brokerage revisions to FY27-FY28 revenue, EBITDA and target-price assumptions.
- Tighten capital allocation toward high-throughput cities and proven micro-markets rather than chasing store-count targets.
- Stage DMart Ready expansion around dense existing-store clusters to improve fulfillment economics and customer acquisition efficiency.
- Increase focus on private-label mix, procurement savings and shrink control to protect gross margin amid slower operating leverage.
- Communicate store pipeline visibility, opening phasing and new-store ramp metrics to address investor concerns over the reduced target.