Dolat Capital sees up to 25% upside in Triveni Engineering and Balrampur Chini
Dolat Capital retained Buy ratings on Triveni Engineering and Balrampur Chini, citing tight sugar inventories, lower output, festival demand and firm global prices. Domestic sugar prices have risen from about Rs48/kg in July to Rs57-58/kg.
What happened
Triveni Engineering and Industries · Dolat Capital retained Buy ratings on Triveni Engineering and Balrampur Chini, citing tight inventories, lower production,
Key facts
- Triveni Engineering target price: Rs 360
- Triveni Engineering current price: Rs 287
- Triveni Engineering implied upside: about 25%
- Balrampur Chini target price: Rs 817
- Balrampur Chini current price: Rs 660
- Balrampur Chini implied upside: 24%
- Domestic sugar price in July: around Rs 48/kg
- Current domestic sugar price: Rs 57-58/kg
Why this matters
The stronger sugar cycle raises the strategic value of supply-security partnerships, long-term procurement agreements and potential investments across the sugar and ethanol value chain.
What to watch
- Domestic sugar prices holding above Rs57-58/kg through the festival-demand period.
- Industry inventory estimates falling below comfortable consumption-cover levels.
- Any government announcement on sugar exports, imports, stockholding limits or additional market releases.
- Revisions to India sugar-production forecasts and cane-yield outlooks.
- Global raw sugar price moves, Brazilian crop updates and currency changes affecting import-parity pricing.
- Quarterly margin guidance and working-capital commentary from Triveni Engineering and Balrampur Chini.
- Track monthly ex-mill sugar prices and regional price spreads, especially in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
- Monitor government decisions on export permissions, import duties, stock limits and monthly sugar release mechanisms.
- Watch monsoon progress, reservoir levels, cane acreage and early crop-yield estimates for the 2025-26 crushing season.
- Assess whether higher sugar profitability changes ethanol diversion incentives or offsets weaker ethanol economics.
- Expect investor preference to shift toward mills with stronger balance sheets, captive power/distillery assets and lower cane-cost exposure if prices remain high.