Elara sees festive auto growth slowing to 7–10%, backs TVS, Eicher, Maruti and M&M
Elara Capital forecasts 7–10% passenger-vehicle and two-wheeler growth in September–November, down from 18–22% in April–August, with growth potentially easing to 2–3% from December to March. It prefers TVS Motor, Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra.
What happened
TVS Motor · Elara Capital expects Indian auto sales growth to slow during the festive season and further after December due to a high base. It prefers
Key facts
- 7-10% passenger-vehicle and two-wheeler sales growth forecast for September-November
- 18-22% industry growth recorded between April and August
- 2-3% growth forecast for December-March
- ~12% two-year CAGR implied for festive growth
- Passenger-vehicle OEM stocks declined 5-10% over the past month
- CNG accounted for 25.3% of August passenger-vehicle retail sales
- Hybrids accounted for 9%
- EVs accounted for about 7.5-8%
- Alternate-fuel vehicles represented about 42% of sales versus 41% for petrol and ethanol
- Alternate-fuel share expected to exceed 50% in 2-3 years
- Elara FY30 EV-share estimate of 15-16%
Why this matters
Auto-sector deal teams should stress-test growth assumptions against a potential drop to 2–3% growth after the festive season and prioritize partnerships with the better-positioned OEMs.