Ethanol’s shift from sugar to maize could raise India’s egg and chicken prices
Tighter sugar supplies may push more ethanol production towards maize, increasing competition with poultry-feed buyers. With maize output and acreage under pressure, higher feed costs could keep eggs, chicken, sugar and other food-retail prices elevated through 2026-27.
What happened
Indian food retail · India’s sugar shortage may shift ethanol demand to maize, intensifying competition with poultry feed amid lower crop prospects. Rising
Key facts
- Sugar output estimate cut to 31 million tonnes for 2025-26 from nearly 35 million tonnes
- Maize demand for ethanol could rise 40-50% next year
- India maize production forecast to fall 10% in 2026-27
- Poultry feed prices rose from about ₹25/kg in April to over ₹30/kg
- Delhi wholesale egg prices reached ₹6.70 per egg in July, up nearly 39% year-on-year
What changed
India’s sugar shortage may shift ethanol demand to maize, intensifying competition with poultry feed amid lower crop prospects. Rising maize, feed and egg prices could sustain pressure on chicken, eggs, sugar and other food-retail categories.
Why this matters
Prepare for sustained egg, chicken and sugar cost inflation through 2026-27 by tightening supplier contracts, expanding value-tier options and protecting margin-sensitive promotions.
What to watch
- Government decisions on ethanol procurement, maize-based ethanol incentives, sugar diversion limits and grain-import policy.
- Maize sowing acreage, monsoon distribution, crop-condition reports and post-harvest mandi prices.
- Poultry-feed prices relative to the ₹30/kg level and poultry integrator announcements on chick placement or production cuts.
- Wholesale egg and broiler price trends, especially sustained year-on-year increases above 25%.
- Retail scanner data showing volume declines in fresh chicken and eggs, increased private-label penetration or switching toward pulses and vegetarian protein.