FMCG firms expect 9–11% festive growth as value-conscious shoppers trade up on pack sizes
FMCG companies are prioritising volumes and absorbing input-cost pressure through the August–November festive period. Unit purchases are up 20% and larger packs 12%, while premiumisation remains strongest among urban consumers.
What happened
Nimida Group · FMCG firms expect 9-11% festive demand growth but see value-conscious shoppers favouring larger packs and higher volumes over per-unit spending.
Key facts
- FMCG demand growth estimated at 9-11% during the August-November festive period
- Unit purchases increased 20%
- Bigger packs increased 12%
- Cocoa costs rose 48% quarter-on-quarter
What changed
FMCG firms expect 9-11% festive demand growth but see value-conscious shoppers favouring larger packs and higher volumes over per-unit spending. Companies are absorbing commodity-cost pressure to protect volumes, while premiumisation persists structurally among urban consumers.
Why this matters
Prioritise festive inventory and pack architecture around larger value packs, as unit demand is rising despite input-cost pressure and limited appetite for higher per-unit prices.
What to watch
- Weekly unit-volume growth versus value growth during August–November.
- Share growth of large packs and multi-pack formats relative to small sachets and single units.
- Commodity movements in palm oil, crude derivatives, cocoa, coffee, sugar and packaging materials.
- Retailer inventory days, reorder rates and distributor secondary-sales trends after major festive weeks.
- Promotional intensity and price-pack changes by major FMCG competitors.