FMCG price hikes may lift India’s core inflation, Elara Capital says
Elara Capital says planned FMCG price increases to offset elevated input costs could challenge the RBI’s benign inflation outlook. The brokerage forecasts 5% headline CPI inflation and expects rates to stay unchanged through 2026, with a possible 25-bps hike in early 2027.
Elara Capital says planned FMCG price hikes to offset elevated input costs could lift India’s core inflation, despite RBI’s benign outlook. It expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, with a possible 25-basis-point hike in early 2027.
Why this matters
Planned price hikes add an inflation risk to Indian FMCG's recent pattern: firms were bracing for a Q1 margin squeeze despite resilient demand, while protein emerged as a premiumisation lever and Q1 FY27 demand-revival expectations rose.
Retail-company signals are accelerating, up 165822% QoQ.