GST-led auto sales rebound lifts just four of 11 automaker stocks
A year after GST rationalisation, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors and Ashok Leyland posted positive returns, even as most peers lagged. Investors are now weighing pricing pressure, raw-material inflation and tougher tractor comparisons against the sales recovery.
What happened
TVS Motor Company · Indian automakers saw sales revive after GST rationalisation, but only four of 11 stocks gained. TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors and
Key facts
- 4 of 11 automakers delivered positive year-on-year returns
- TVS Motor: +18.3% to Rs 4,171 from Rs 3,525
- Bajaj Auto: +26.1% to Rs 11,414 from Rs 9,055
- Eicher Motors: +8.2% to Rs 7,516
- Ashok Leyland: +17.3% to Rs 163
- Hero MotoCorp: -2.7%
- Maruti Suzuki: -23.5%
- Mahindra & Mahindra: -14.8%
- Tata Motors PV: -28.0%
- Hyundai Motor: -18.9%
- Escorts: -23.5%
- Tata Motors: +34.3% since its November 2025 listing
Why this matters
Potential automotive partnerships or acquisitions should prioritize resilient two-wheeler and commercial-vehicle businesses over relying on a broad-based sector recovery.
What to watch
- Monthly retail registrations versus wholesale dispatches and dealer inventory days.
- Steel, aluminium, rubber, crude oil and battery-input price trends.
- OEM price hikes, dealer incentives, financing rates and loan-approval trends.
- Rural income indicators, monsoon progress and tractor sales comparisons.
- Export demand, especially for Bajaj Auto and other two-wheeler manufacturers.
- Quarterly EBITDA margins, inventory provisions and management commentary on discounting.
- Favor OEMs with demonstrated pricing power, premiumization, export diversification and lower reliance on promotional discounting.
- Track whether volume growth is converting into revenue-per-unit and EBITDA-margin expansion rather than merely higher wholesales.
- Expect suppliers with exposure to two-wheelers, commercial vehicles, tyres and replacement demand to benefit unevenly from the recovery.
- Watch for capital-allocation divergence: stronger OEMs may accelerate product launches and EV investment while laggards protect cash flow through slower capex.