GST refund pendency drops sharply, easing exporters’ working-capital pressure
As of March 31, 2026, just 110 GST refund claims worth Rs 64 crore were pending beyond 90 days, down from 712 claims worth Rs 560 crore at FY25-end. Automation, risk-based provisional refunds and tracking tools are improving cash-flow visibility for exporters and retail supply chains.
What happened
GST refund pendency has fallen sharply by March 2026, aided by automated IGST-export processing, risk-based provisional refunds and application tracking. The
Key facts
- 64 refund claims worth about Rs 164 crore pending for over 60 and up to 90 days as of March 31, 2026
- 110 refund claims worth Rs 64 crore pending for over 90 days as of March 31, 2026
- 907 claims worth Rs 274 crore pending 60-90 days at FY24-end
- 374 claims worth Rs 246 crore pending 60-90 days at FY25-end
- 1,592 claims worth Rs 696 crore pending over 90 days at FY24-end
- 712 claims worth Rs 560 crore pending over 90 days at FY25-end
- 90% provisional refund available within 7 days for eligible zero-rated supplies
Why this matters
For acquisitions involving export-heavy suppliers, faster and more predictable GST refunds reduce trapped-cash risk and may support leaner working-capital adjustments in deal models.
What to watch
- Monthly GST refund disposal data, especially the value and count of claims pending beyond 60 and 90 days.
- Whether the share of provisional refunds rises without a corresponding increase in later recoveries, notices or disputed claims.
- Supplier-level changes in lead times, fill rates, payment-term requests and borrowing costs.
- GSTN system reliability, data-matching error rates and new anti-fraud rules affecting export refund claims.
- Export demand trends, since weaker overseas orders could offset the working-capital benefit from faster refunds.
- Retailers should reassess supplier payment terms and identify vendors whose working-capital constraints had previously caused stock-outs or delayed launches.
- Export-oriented retailers and brands should incorporate lower GST-refund financing costs into vendor negotiations, sourcing bids and inventory plans.
- Finance teams should monitor whether suppliers reduce requests for advances, early-payment discounts or invoice-financing support.
- Companies should tighten GST documentation, e-invoice reconciliation and export-proof workflows to qualify for faster automated or provisional refunds.