HDFC Securities' Buy call on Ather Energy resurfaces, June note flagged 31% upside amid lock-in and supply-chain watch
HDFC Securities had initiated coverage of Ather Energy back in June 2025 with a Buy rating and 31% expected upside, a call now resurfacing. Attention at the time was also on post-IPO lock-in expiries, while China’s rare-earth export restrictions remained a supply-chain risk for Indian EV makers.
What happened
HDFC Securities initiated Ather Energy with a Buy rating and 31% expected upside. The page also flagged upcoming lock-in expiry shares, Ather’s IPO listing
Key facts
- 31% expected upside
- Nearly 6% of Ather Energy and Borana Weaves shares due to enter the market after lock-in expiry
Why this matters
Ather’s stronger public-market narrative may improve strategic optionality, but partnership and sourcing decisions should prioritize reducing rare-earth concentration risk before pursuing expansion-led deals.
What to watch
- Unusual delivery volumes or bulk/block transactions after post-IPO lock-in expiries.
- China policy changes affecting rare-earth magnets, motor components, export licenses, or Indian import lead times.
- Ather production guidance changes, supplier qualification announcements, or component-cost commentary.
- Monthly EV registration data showing sustained share gains or losses in Ather's core urban markets.
- Gross-margin, contribution-margin, cash-burn, and inventory trends in quarterly results.
- Competitive pricing actions or new model launches from Ola, TVS, Bajaj, Hero, and other electric two-wheeler brands.
- Track lock-in expiry dates, shareholder concentration, block deals, and delivery-volume changes around those windows.
- Monitor monthly VAHAN registrations, market share versus Ola Electric, TVS, Bajaj, and Hero MotoCorp, and the mix of premium scooter sales.
- Assess whether Ather discloses alternate motor, magnet, or rare-earth sourcing arrangements and inventory buffers.
- Watch for price increases, discounts, financing offers, or dealer incentives that could signal margin-versus-volume trade-offs.
- Compare subsequent analyst revisions to HDFC Securities' target with management guidance on capacity, EBITDA trajectory, and working capital.