HDFC Securities initiates Ather Energy with Buy rating, sees 31% upside

HDFC Securities has initiated coverage of Ather Energy with a Buy rating and an estimated 31% upside. The company’s market narrative also includes a tepid 2025 listing, an upcoming lock-in expiry and potential EV supply-chain risks from China’s rare-earth export curbs.

— FiledTue, 4 Aug, 2026, 12:01 IST·First seen Tue, 4 Aug, 2026, 12:01 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

HDFC Securities initiated Ather Energy with a Buy rating and projected 31% upside. The news page also cites Ather’s tepid 2025 listing, upcoming lock-in share

Key facts

  • 31% expected upside
  • nearly 6% of shares to exit lock-in

Why this matters

Ather should prioritize strategic sourcing, supplier diversification and potential partnerships that reduce rare-earth dependency before lock-in-related share supply and EV component risks affect momentum.

What to watch

  • Lock-in expiry date, eligible share float and subsequent bulk/block transactions.
  • Quarterly revenue growth, EBITDA-loss trajectory, gross margin and operating cash flow.
  • Sustained improvement in electric two-wheeler registrations and Ather's share in core urban markets.
  • Evidence of rare-earth procurement disruption, higher motor costs or component-delivery delays.
  • Management guidance upgrades or cuts on volumes, profitability and capital expenditure.
  • New product launches, expanded charging/dealer footprint and financing-partner announcements.
  • Track monthly vehicle registrations, market-share changes and delivery lead times versus major electric two-wheeler peers.
  • Watch for management commentary on rare-earth magnet sourcing, inventory buffers, alternate suppliers and localization plans.
  • Assess the size and timing of shares becoming eligible for sale after lock-in expiry, along with block-deal activity and promoter/investor holding changes.
  • Monitor whether analyst coverage expands and whether consensus earnings estimates move higher after quarterly results.
  • Compare any pricing actions, dealer additions and new-model launches with margin and cash-burn trends.