HDFC Securities' June call: Ather Energy rated Buy, 31% upside seen
Resurfacing a June 2025 move, HDFC Securities had initiated or reiterated a Buy view on Ather Energy with an estimated 31% upside. The call came amid investor attention on post-IPO share lock-ins, institutional activity and potential EV supply-chain disruption from China's rare-earth export curbs.
What happened
Ather Energy received HDFC Securities' Buy rating with an estimated 31% upside. Related reports cover its lock-in share release, Helios Fund investment, tepid
Key facts
- 31% expected upside
- nearly 6% of Ather Energy and Borana Weaves shares
- May 29, 2025
- May 23, 2025
- June 10, 2025
Why this matters
The rare-earth risk highlights potential value in securing alternative suppliers, technology partnerships, or localized EV-component sourcing.
What to watch
- Monthly electric two-wheeler registration data and Ather market-share trend.
- Any Chinese rare-earth licensing restrictions, price spikes or reported disruptions affecting magnets, motors or battery-related inputs.
- Quarterly revenue growth, gross-margin trajectory, EBITDA-loss reduction and cash-burn guidance.
- Post-IPO lock-in expiry dates, block deals and changes in promoter or institutional ownership.
- Competitive price cuts, new model launches and incentive campaigns from Ola, TVS, Bajaj, Hero and other EV manufacturers.
- Evidence of domestic or non-China supplier qualification for critical motor and magnet components.
- Monitor rare-earth sourcing, inventory buffers and any supplier localization initiatives; dual-sourcing becomes a strategic priority.
- Track monthly registrations versus Ola Electric, TVS, Bajaj and Hero MotoCorp to assess whether Ather is gaining share without sacrificing pricing.
- Watch for management commentary on gross margin, vehicle BOM costs, production utilization and dealer-network economics in the next results cycle.
- Expect institutional flows and lock-in expiry events to drive near-term share-price volatility independently of operating performance.
- Look for product refreshes, battery technology upgrades and financing partnerships that can improve conversion and defend premium positioning.