HDFC Securities' June call: Ather Energy started at Buy, 31% upside seen
Resurfacing a June 2025 move, HDFC Securities had initiated coverage of Ather Energy with a Buy rating and a target implying 31% upside. The call came amid investor attention on post-lock-in share supply, rare-earth sourcing risks for Indian EV makers and muted sentiment after Ather's market debut.
What happened
HDFC Securities initiated Ather Energy with a Buy rating and 31% upside target. Related reports flagged rare-earth export risks to Indian EV production, lock-in
Key facts
- Buy rating
- 31% expected upside
- Nearly 6% of Ather Energy and Borana Weaves shares released after lock-in expiry
- May 23, 2025
- May 29, 2025
- June 10, 2025
Why this matters
Ather Energy’s favorable analyst initiation strengthens its strategic-market narrative, while rare-earth dependency and potential share overhang underscore the value of supply-chain partnerships and capital-markets readiness.
What to watch
- Lock-in expiry dates, block deals, promoter/early-investor sales and daily delivery-volume spikes.
- Monthly Vahan registration data and Ather's share in core urban markets.
- Updates on China rare-earth export controls, Indian sourcing initiatives or component-price inflation.
- Quarterly revenue growth, gross-margin progression, EBITDA/cash-burn guidance and working-capital changes.
- New product launches, charging-grid expansion, financing partnerships and dealer additions.
- Competitor discounting, launches or incentive campaigns that could pressure Ather pricing.
- Assess post-lock-in shareholder concentration, likely seller cohorts and expected free-float increase.
- Track monthly electric two-wheeler registrations, Ather market-share trends and dealer-network additions versus Ola Electric, TVS and Bajaj.
- Monitor rare-earth magnet sourcing, inventory buffers, supplier diversification and any production guidance changes.
- Watch for management commentary on gross margin, subsidy assumptions, battery costs and cash-burn trajectory.
- Use any price strength following the initiation to evaluate whether volume confirms institutional accumulation or is met by secondary supply.