HDFC Securities retains Buy on Century Plyboards, sets Rs 990 target
HDFC Securities expects Century Plyboards’ revenue, EBITDA and adjusted PAT to grow at 15%, 23% and 30% CAGR, respectively, over FY26-FY29E. The brokerage cites distribution strength, market-share gains and new plywood capacity, while flagging near-term margin pressure from higher advertising spend.
What happened
Century Plyboards India · HDFC Securities retained its Buy rating on Century Plyboards with a Rs 990 target, citing pan-India distribution, market-share gains
Key facts
- Target price: Rs 990
- Revenue CAGR: 15% (FY26-FY29E)
- EBITDA CAGR: 23% (FY26-FY29E)
- Adjusted PAT CAGR: 30% (FY26-FY29E)
- FY27E APAT estimate cut: 4%
Why this matters
The outlook reinforces the strategic value of scaling distribution and capacity in plywood, where share gains can offset near-term brand-building investment pressure.
What to watch
- Quarterly revenue growth versus the broader plywood, laminate and housing-renovation market.
- EBITDA-margin trend, especially the split between advertising expense, trade incentives and gross-margin movement.
- New plywood capacity commissioning date, utilization trajectory and incremental dealer coverage.
- Management commentary on market-share gains, price hikes and competitive intensity.
- Timber, resin, freight and other input-cost trends relative to realization increases.
- Further consensus or brokerage revisions following the 4% FY27E APAT cut.
- Housing starts, real-estate completions and discretionary home-improvement demand in key markets.
- Sustain elevated brand advertising and dealer-facing promotions to deepen distribution-led market-share gains.
- Prioritize timely commissioning and utilization ramp-up of new plywood capacity while managing working-capital intensity.
- Push premium and value-added categories to protect realization and improve mix despite higher customer-acquisition spending.
- Use selective pricing, procurement discipline and product mix changes to mitigate timber and resin cost volatility.
- Expand cross-selling across plywood, laminates and adjacent interior-material categories through the existing dealer network.