HDFC Securities starts Ather Energy at Buy, sees 31% upside amid EV supply risks
HDFC Securities initiated coverage on Ather Energy with a Buy rating and projected 31% upside. The call arrives as rare-earth export curbs raise production-risk concerns for Indian EV makers and Ather’s post-IPO trading remains under scrutiny following its lock-in expiry.
What happened
HDFC Securities initiated Ather Energy at Buy, projecting 31% upside. Related reports flagged rare-earth export curbs as a risk to Indian EV production, while
Key facts
- 31% expected upside
- nearly 6% of Ather Energy and Borana Weaves shares
- May 29, 2025
- May 23, 2025
- June 10, 2025
Why this matters
Ather’s valuation momentum may strengthen its partnership appeal, but prospective partners should diligence rare-earth sourcing resilience and production-contingency plans.
What to watch
- Indian government response, exemptions or bilateral developments affecting rare-earth imports from China.
- Ather delivery growth versus Ola Electric, TVS, Bajaj and Hero MotoCorp in monthly Vahan registration data.
- Evidence of motor, magnet or controller shortages, including production guidance cuts or longer customer delivery timelines.
- Quarterly gross margin, EBITDA loss, working-capital movement and inventory build.
- Share-price and trading-volume behavior following lock-in expiry, including promoter, employee or pre-IPO investor selling disclosures.
- Competitor price reductions, new model launches and financing incentives in the premium electric-scooter segment.
- Build inventory cover for rare-earth-dependent components and qualify alternate magnet, motor and component suppliers.
- Prioritize higher-margin models, accessories and software-led revenue to offset potential input-cost inflation.
- Use retail expansion selectively, focusing on cities where charging access, financing availability and service density can lift conversion and repeat demand.
- Increase investor disclosure on supplier concentration, inventory coverage, production continuity plans, monthly deliveries and unit economics.
- Monitor peer pricing: a broad electric-scooter discounting cycle could force higher customer-acquisition spending and weaken gross margins.