HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil gain as Brent crude falls to $90 a barrel

Shares of India’s major fuel retailers rose after Brent crude dropped 6.71% to $90.29 a barrel, potentially easing pressure on fuel marketing margins and freight costs. Nomura prefers Indian Oil and BPCL over HPCL.

— Source publishedMon, 27 Jul, 2026, 13:23 IST·First seen Mon, 27 Jul, 2026, 14:21 IST·Source Business Standard · Companies

What happened

HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil shares rose after Brent crude dropped to $90.29 a barrel amid easing West Asia tensions. Lower oil and freight costs could ease

Key facts

  • Brent crude fell 6.71% to $90.29 per barrel
  • HPCL shares rose 3.4% to ₹394
  • Indian Oil shares rose 2.17% to ₹141
  • BPCL shares gained 2.5% to ₹318
  • India imports more than 85% of its crude requirement
  • Nomura BPCL target price: ₹395, raised from ₹365
  • Nomura projects BPCL FY27 EBITDA of ₹1,700 crore, down 96% year-on-year
  • Estimated retailing losses: ₹4.1/litre petrol and ₹9.4/litre diesel
  • Estimated LPG under-recovery: ₹200 per cylinder
  • HPCL target price: ₹420, reduced from ₹440

Why this matters

Cheaper crude improves the near-term economics of fuel-retail networks, potentially supporting investment in distribution, logistics and customer-facing expansion.

What to watch

  • Brent sustaining below $90 per barrel versus rebounding above $95-$100.
  • USD/INR movement, since rupee depreciation can offset lower dollar-denominated crude costs.
  • Indian petrol and diesel retail-price revisions or changes in excise duty and dealer commissions.
  • Weekly Indian product demand, refinery utilization and diesel/petrol inventory data.
  • OMC quarterly disclosures on marketing margins, inventory valuation and net debt.
  • OPEC+ supply decisions and Middle East shipping or supply-disruption developments.
  • Expect investors to favor Indian Oil and BPCL over HPCL on perceived margin leverage, consistent with Nomura's preference.
  • Watch for management commentary on inventory gains or losses, diesel and petrol marketing margins, refinery throughput and debt reduction.
  • Transport-intensive companies may see selective earnings upgrades if lower crude persists, especially logistics, airlines, consumer staples distribution and e-commerce delivery.
  • The government may face reduced pressure to cut excise duties or alter retail fuel prices if current pump prices preserve marketing margins.