HSBC sees Airtel mobile ARPU rising to Rs 325 by FY29
HSBC projects Bharti Airtel’s mobile ARPU will climb from Rs 257 in FY26 to Rs 325 by FY29, supported by premium-plan adoption, postpaid migration, higher data usage and a potential tariff increase in early 2027. Its homes business is forecast to scale to 25.4 million subscribers by FY29.
What happened
HSBC expects Bharti Airtel’s mobile ARPU to reach Rs 325 by FY29, driven by premium plans, higher data usage, postpaid migration and a potential 2027 tariff
Key facts
- Mobile ARPU forecast: Rs 325 by FY29
- Mobile ARPU: Rs 264 in June 2026 quarter
- FY27 ARPU estimate: Rs 277
- FY28 ARPU estimate: Rs 310
- FY26 ARPU: Rs 257
- Mobile ARPU CAGR: 8% over FY26-29
- India mobile revenue CAGR: 11% over FY26-29
- Data traffic: 31.1 billion GB in June quarter
- Per-capita data use: 34.4 GB per month
- Homes revenue CAGR: 23% over FY26-29
- Homes subscribers: 25.4 million by FY29 versus 14.2 million in FY26
Why this matters
Airtel’s expected expansion to 25.4 million home subscribers by FY29 increases the strategic value of fibre, fixed-wireless, content and smart-home partnerships that can deepen household monetisation.
What to watch
- Timing, magnitude and industry-wide participation in the next mobile tariff hike.
- Quarterly Airtel mobile ARPU growth relative to the Rs 257 FY26 starting point.
- Prepaid-to-postpaid migration, premium unlimited-plan mix and 5G data consumption per user.
- Net home broadband additions, fibre versus fixed-wireless mix, installation lead times and churn.
- Competitor pricing moves by Jio and Vodafone Idea, especially low-cost 5G and home-internet bundles.
- Household affordability trends and smartphone upgrade rates, which determine the elasticity of premium pricing.
- Network quality indicators in high-usage circles and capex intensity needed to sustain 5G experience.
- Prioritise 5G plan design that monetises heavy-data users without accelerating churn among price-sensitive prepaid customers.
- Bundle fibre and fixed-wireless access with postpaid mobile, OTT/content and smart-home services to raise household-level revenue.
- Expand fixed-wireless access selectively in fibre-constrained urban and semi-urban markets where installation speed is a differentiator.
- Use targeted handset-financing and premium-device partnerships to accelerate migration into higher-ARPU 5G cohorts.
- Prepare retention offers and distribution incentives ahead of any 2027 tariff action to limit downgrades and port-outs.
- Invest in network capacity and home-installation operations, as congestion or poor onboarding could cap premium-plan conversion.