ICICI Bank sees gold at up to ₹1.60 lakh per 10g in 2026, pressuring jewellery demand
ICICI Bank expects high bullion prices to curb Indian jewellery demand, although wedding and festive purchases should remain resilient. It forecasts domestic gold at ₹1.40 lakh–₹1.60 lakh per 10g through 2026 and global prices of up to $5,000/oz in H1 2027.
What happened
ICICI Bank expects elevated gold prices to constrain Indian jewellery demand, though wedding and festive buying should remain resilient. It forecasts domestic
Key facts
- Gold forecast: $4,200-$4,600/oz for remainder of 2026
- Gold forecast: $4,600-$5,000/oz in H1 2027
- Indian gold forecast: ₹1.40 lakh-₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams through 2026
- Gold ETFs: $17.8 billion inflows in August
- India gold imports: $2.3 billion in August versus $4.2 billion in July
- Indian gold ETF inflows: ₹26 billion in August
Why this matters
Prioritize partnerships or acquisitions that add lightweight design capability, gold-exchange infrastructure and accessible-price distribution as elevated bullion costs reshape category demand.
What to watch
- Domestic gold sustaining above ₹1.40 lakh per 10g versus a rapid move toward ₹1.60 lakh per 10g.
- Wedding-season gram-volume growth, conversion rates and average transaction weights across organised chains.
- Old-gold exchange contribution, gold-savings-plan redemptions and EMI penetration.
- Gold import trends, jewellery export demand and consumer demand data from industry bodies.
- Rupee movement, global real yields, central-bank buying and geopolitical escalation affecting bullion prices.
- Category mix shifts toward lightweight gold, studded jewellery, silver, platinum and lab-grown diamonds.
- Promotional intensity, discounting and inventory days at listed jewellery retailers.
- Increase lightweight and low-ticket design depth, especially products positioned for gifting, daily wear and wedding functions.
- Expand old-gold exchange, guaranteed buyback, gold savings plans and transparent EMI propositions to reduce upfront-price friction.
- Rebalance assortments toward studded jewellery, silver, platinum and lab-grown diamonds while preserving core bridal gold availability.
- Tighten gold inventory turns, hedge price exposure where feasible and use made-to-order bridal models to limit working-capital risk.
- Use purity certification, resale value and exchange-rate messaging in marketing, as trust becomes a stronger organised-retail advantage.
- Monitor store-level gram volumes separately from revenue growth to avoid mistaking bullion-led ticket inflation for healthy underlying demand.